Why NBA rookie contract extensions are harder now and what to expect with 2022 class

As the Great Restricted Free-Agency Malaise drags into August, with all four key restricted free agents in this cycle (Golden State’s Jonathan Kuminga, Brooklyn’s Cam Thomas, Chicago’s Josh Giddey and Philadelphia’s Quentin Grimes) seemingly nowhere close to contractual resolutions, it brings to mind an immediate and obvious question: Will we have even malaise in the summer of 2026

One can argue that conditions are ripe for such a situation. We have at least 11 starting-caliber (or, at the very least, “starter-ish”) players in the 2026 restricted free-agency cycle who have yet to sign extensions and who aren’t going to be signing for the max, which historically are the necessary initial conditions to catalyze restricted free agency (RFA) staredowns. Additionally, another important change has altered the market and isn’t getting enough discussion: Incentives are now dead.

Do you realize that zero contracts signed this summer have contained incentives? You can thank the 2023 collective bargaining agreement for that, as incentives now count toward the first- and second-apron payroll thresholds regardless of whether or not players achieve them. As a result, those same incentives can become a massive impediment to potential trades, and teams are loath to include them.